Projected Increase in US Soybean Production and Exports

15-Sep-2026 04:13 PM

Chicago: The outlook for the US soybean sector appears robust and positive this year. Increases in US soybean production and exports, alongside a reduction in ending surplus stocks, are projected for the 2026-27 marketing season.

US soybean production is expected to rise by 16 million bushels to reach 4.50 billion bushels this season, driven by an anticipated improvement in the average yield to 52.8 bushels per acre. The harvested area is also set to expand. Preparations for harvesting the new US soybean crop have effectively begun.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its soybean export forecast for the 2026-27 season by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion bushels, while lowering the ending stock estimate by 10 million bushels to 310 million bushels. The average soybean price for the entire marketing season is projected at $12 per bushel.

Similarly, the average price for soybean meal is estimated at $340 per short ton. Global production of this key oilseed is expected to reach 442.3 million tonnes, while ending stocks could decline to 124 million tonnes. After Brazil, the US is the world's second-largest producer and exporter of soybeans; it anticipates increased exports of its stocks to China this year.