El Niño Intensifies, but Positive Shift Seen in IOD

16-Sep-2026 04:24 PM

Sydney: The intensity and strength of the El Niño weather cycle continue to rise, ensuring that weather patterns will keep shifting in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have risen significantly above normal levels. The latest Niño 3.4 index has climbed to 2.51°C, with the potential for further intensification in the months ahead.

However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has simultaneously risen above its neutral baseline into positive territory; this could potentially mitigate the impact of El Niño across South Asia, including India. While the positive IOD phase previously lacked consistency, it has now moved decisively above the baseline.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology states that El Niño conditions are expected to persist until March 2027. The Bureau's Southern Hemisphere monitoring report notes that if a new IOD pattern develops by spring, the impact of El Niño on countries surrounding the Indian Ocean could diminish.

Meanwhile, weather models indicate that sea surface warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean is set to increase during the September–November period, likely intensifying El Niño's impact on the Southern Hemisphere. This raises concerns regarding potential effects on agricultural production in Brazil and Argentina.

In India, the Southwest Monsoon season is drawing to a close, with its withdrawal likely to begin on September 19. As it retreats, the monsoon may still bring rainfall to certain parts of the country.