Global Grain Production Forecast Cut by 4 Million Tonnes

17-Jul-2026 08:19 PM

London. The International Grains Council (IGC) had initially projected global grain production at 2.426 billion tonnes for the 2026-27 season; however, in its latest monthly report for July, it reduced this figure by 4 million tonnes to 2.422 billion tonnes. The reduction primarily affects the forecast for maize production. Maize crops are at risk of damage due to severe heatwaves and drought-like conditions in certain European countries.

The IGC has also lowered its forecast for global grain consumption by 1 million tonnes, setting it at 2.45 billion tonnes. The Council's report does not yet factor in the potential impact of the El Niño weather cycle on grain production.

Despite this reduction, the projected grain production remains the second-highest on record. In the 2025-26 season, global grain production had surged to an all-time high of 2.49 billion tonnes. Due to consumption exceeding production, the Council has also reduced its estimate for global ending stocks by 8 million tonnes, setting the figure at 610 million tonnes. The report notes that stocks will remain low at the end of the 2025-26 season, while the supply and availability situation is expected to be somewhat complex during the 2026-27 season.

The grain category encompasses wheat, coarse grains (such as maize), and rice. Currently, there has been no significant reduction in the global rice production forecast, as paddy transplantation is still underway in major Asian countries. Meanwhile, harvesting of winter wheat is in progress in the US, the European Union, and the Black Sea region, while the *Safrinha* (second crop) maize harvest is ongoing in Brazil. Maize harvesting is also continuing in Argentina.

The Council has raised its estimate for global grain trade (imports and exports) by 5 million tonnes to 450 million tonnes, a figure subject to further revision.