New Delhi. Red chili sowing operations in major producing states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have not proceeded as expected due to a lack of rainfall. While sowing has commenced in areas reliant on tube-wells, it has not yet begun in rain-fed fields; however, the higher prices compared to last year suggest a likely increase in the total sowing area. Nevertheless, water scarcity is causing delays in the planting process. Notably, recent rains in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh indicate that red chili is being sown over a larger area compared to last year. If rainfall does not occur in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana by next week, the total area under red chili cultivation could be adversely affected.

It is worth noting that during the previous season, red chili sowing was reduced by 30–35% in major producing states—Telangana, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh—because farmers did not receive fair prices for their produce, resulting in a decline in overall output. According to available data, red chili production in the major producing state of Andhra Pradesh is estimated at 1.25 crore bags this year, down from 1.50 crore bags last year. Similarly, production in Telangana is projected to be 45–50 lakh bags, compared to 60–65 lakh bags the previous year. Production in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh was also estimated to be 30–35% lower than the previous year. It is pertinent to mention that the red chili crop in Madhya Pradesh arrives in October–November, whereas the arrival of new stock from Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka begins in January–February.

Due to the decline in production, red chili stocks at major producing centers during the current season have remained lower compared to the previous year. According to available information, the stock at the Guntur market in Andhra Pradesh is estimated at 40–42 lakh bags, whereas last year it stood at 50–52 lakh bags. Similarly, stocks in Khammam are at 14–15 lakh bags, compared to 20–21 lakh bags last year. Reports indicate that stocks in Warangal are around 15–16 lakh bags, down from 18–19 lakh bags the previous year.

Currently, red chili arrivals at markets in producing centers are quite low; however, prices are not rising due to subdued export trade. Reports suggest that daily arrivals are running at 15,000–20,000 bags in Guntur, 8,000–10,000 bags in Khammam, and 4,000–5,000 bags in Warangal. Prices for the 'Teja' variety are currently quoted at ₹190–220 per kg in Guntur and ₹190–218 per kg in Khammam—rates that are ₹50–60 per kg higher than during the same period last year.

Sowing of red chili in Madhya Pradesh is in its final stages. Driven by higher price realizations compared to last year, the area under cultivation has roughly doubled. Provided the crop receives adequate water and remains free from disease in the coming days, production in Madhya Pradesh is expected to reach around 55–60 lakh bags; for context, production during the current season was estimated at 28–30 lakh bags. Arrivals of the new crop in Madhya Pradesh are expected to begin in September–October. High prices are also likely to lead to increased sowing in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka.

Industry sources indicate that there is no likelihood of a decline in current red chili prices. Prices are likely to rise in the coming days as demand picks up, driven by low stock levels in the markets and the fact that the new crop from Madhya Pradesh is still four to five months away. Given the current situation, it is anticipated that the price of red chili in the markets will reach ₹240–250 per kg before the arrival of the new crop from Madhya Pradesh.

Due to lower-than-expected demand from China, red chili exports declined by 4% in volume and 9% in value during the 2025–26 period. According to data released by the Spices Board, red chili exports totaled 683,681 tonnes, generating revenue of ₹10,395.59 crore during 2025–26 (April–March). In contrast, exports stood at 715,506 tonnes with a value of ₹11,404.9 crore during the 2024–25 period.