Wheat production likely to be affected in the upcoming Rabi season

17-Jul-2026 03:51 PM

New Delhi. The severe adverse impact of the so-called 'Super El Niño' is being observed on the Southwest Monsoon this year, leading to a sharp decline in the sowing of Kharif crops. The influence of El Niño is expected to persist until January-February 2027, which could also affect Northeast Monsoon rainfall.

Meanwhile, starting October 2026, the sowing of Rabi crops—such as wheat, barley, gram (chickpea), lentil, pea, and mustard—will commence alongside the harvesting of Kharif crops; this process is likely to continue roughly until the third week of February 2027. If weather and monsoon conditions remain unfavorable, the pace of wheat sowing during the Rabi season could slow down. Although wheat does not require waterlogging like paddy, adequate soil moisture is essential for its sowing and growth.

Last week, at the Wheat Products Promotion Society (WPPS) CEO Conclave held in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, experts stated that the harvesting of Kharif crops would be delayed this year, subsequently delaying the sowing of Rabi crops. Thereafter, the focus will shift to the role of weather and climate conditions.

The head of a leading private weather forecasting agency stated that the Southwest Monsoon is performing poorly this year, and a rainfall deficit persisting through September could continue to pose a threat to Kharif crops. This year could turn out to be a drought year, with the potential to impact not only Kharif crops but also Rabi crops. However, the Meteorological Department has stopped officially declaring any year as 'drought-affected' since 2016. On a positive note, the Indian Ocean Dipole is turning positive, raising hopes for good rainfall across the country during September and October.